When you live in Western New York long enough, following winter weather becomes part of your daily routine. As Western New Yorkers, we understand the impacts Lake Erie has on our weather patterns. Lake Erie, the shallowest of the Great Lakes, is known for its seiche events. Seiches are created by standing waves moving back and forth through an enclosed body of water.
As low pressure systems and associated winds progress over Lake Erie from the west-southwest, they blow along Lake Erie from Toledo towards Buffalo, which causes the lake’s water levels to dip in the west and pile up water on the east. These events are most pronounced in the fall and winter months. When storms subside, and wind force decreases, the water piled along the coastline of Buffalo flows back into the lake, creating a back-and-forth wave motion for hours to days after the peak of the event.
Water levels in the Great Lakes are cyclical, driven in part by the cycling of ocean currents which affect the balance of precipitation and evaporation in our region.
This natural process appears to have resulted in relatively high Lake Erie water levels in the 1950s, 1970s through the 90s and again from 2010 to 2020. The recent, relatively low, water levels in Lake Erie are likely a part of this ongoing natural cycle. Seiches are a natural historical phenomenon occurring in Lake Erie.
Cradle Beach, Lake Erie Shoreline (Town of Evans) game camera. Nov. 26, 2025 at 3 p.m.
More extreme storms and increased precipitation as a result of climate change are impacting the Great Lakes region. Combined with the natural occurring seiche, climate researchers suggest that Lake Erie average levels could increase 11 to 21 inches by 2050.
Rising Lake Erie water levels leave the Buffalo waterfront more exposed to flooding when storms blow ashore. All eight of the historic flood crests reported by the National Weather Service have been recorded since 1975; five of them have been recorded since 2000.
Mouth of Little Sister Creek (Town of Evans) game camera. November 26, 2025, at 11am.
The 100-year Lake Erie water level of 580.3 FT IGLD85 was met twice in the last fifteen years. Buffalo’s shoreline breakwall infrastructure can protect the city from normal seiche wave action, but they are not flood walls and do not provide protection from rising Lake Erie water levels and seiche.
Mouth of Muddy Creek (Town of Evans) game camera. Nov. 26, 2025, at 3 p.m.
Buffalo Niagara Waterkeeper is conducting coastal resiliency studies along the Lake Erie shoreline in Western New York to identify the most challenged areas and as well as solutions for building resiliency in the face of these rising waters and climate impacts.
The two charts below show how levels spiked during the two seiche events. The charts are measuring what is called Low Water Datum, which is a different measurement than actual water level. The Low Water Datum definition is "a surface water level so low that water rarely drops below it." The information is important for navigational purposes. For Lake Erie in November, the Low Water Datum is typically 570 feet and the average water level is 571 feet. Each seiche caused a 5 to 6-foot spike.
Source: Great Lakes Observing System. Lake Erie buoy at the mouth of Buffalo River. Depiction of water levels above Low Water Datum — considered higher than low water level — during November 2025. The graph indicates a seiche event on Nov. 26 and Dec. 1 with water levels 6 feet above normal.
Source: Great Lakes Observing System. Lake Erie buoy at Sturgeon Point (Town of Evans). Depiction of water levels above Low Water Datum — considered higher than low water level — during the November 2025. The graph indicates a seiche event on Nov. 26 and Dec. 1 with water levels 5 feet above normal.
Below are before and after images taken from trail cameras at Cradle Beach Camp in Angola.
Cradle Beach, Lake Erie Shoreline (Town of Evans) game camera from Nov. 25 & Nov. 26. The recent installation of a sand fence provides a protection measure to the eroding shoreline slope.
Mouth of Little Sister Creek (Town of Evans) game camera. November 26, 2025.
Mouth of Muddy Creek (Town of Evans) game camera. Nov. 26, 2025
Cradle Beach, Lake Erie Shoreline (Town of Evans) game camera. Nov. 26, 2025.
